Snowpack & Runoff, Water Year 2026
Captured: 2026-04-18. Re-run scripts for fresh numbers; these degrade fast once melt starts.
Headline: 2026 is historically bad
- Colorado statewide snowpack: 22% of median on 2026-04-09 — collapsed from 60% on March 1 after a record-warm March drove early isothermal melt-off.
- Arkansas basin specifically: ~11% of median late March, ~49% on April 1 but dropping fast.
- Colorado Climate Center called 2026 "the worst year for Colorado snowpack in recorded history," with 95% of SNOTEL sites at the lowest or second-lowest values on record.
- Governor Polis activated Phase 2 of Colorado's Drought Response Plan on 2026-03-16.
April–July streamflow forecasts (NRCS Water Supply Outlook, April 1)
Uniformly below 50% of average; several sites at 27–45%.
| Point | Apr 1 flow | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas at Granite | 122 cfs | low |
| Arkansas at Salida | 263 cfs | ~40–50% of avg |
| Arkansas at Pueblo | 335 cfs | ~40–50% of avg |
| Arkansas at Lamar | 50 cfs | critical |
| Voluntary Flow Management Program (Brown's Canyon) | — | not expected to meet the 700 cfs summer target |
John Martin inflow will be substantially worse than upper-basin numbers because of reach losses through the valley and premature melt.
Reservoir storage (as of 2026-04-17)
| Reservoir | Storage (AF) | % Full | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pueblo | 214,821 | 66.5% | OK for now |
| Turquoise | ~88,057 | ~68% | |
| Twin Lakes | 95,853 | 68.0% | |
| Ruedi | 67,253 | 65.7% | Inflow 97 cfs |
| John Martin | 54,487 | 15.6% | Critical — lifeline for lower Ark already drained |
Upstream Fry-Ark pools are roughly two-thirds full. Pueblo is fine. John Martin is the problem.
Climate outlook
- ENSO: La Niña ended. CPC April 2026: ENSO-neutral favored Apr–Jun (80%); El Niño emerging May–Jul (61%) persisting through late 2026.
- CPC 3-month outlook (CO): near-normal precipitation; warmer-than-normal on the eastern plains.
- US Drought Monitor (2026-04-16): Eastern Colorado (incl. Bent County) experienced nearly a full-category degradation in the past two weeks; D1–D3 expanding across SE Colorado.
Fry-Ark transmountain imports
Per USBR April 1, 2026 forecast:
- 2026 projected import: ~6,500 AF (about 10% of the 20-year average of ~56,000 AF).
- SECWCD announced water-right-holder allocation of approximately 4,600 AF — one of the smallest ever.
- This removes the single most reliable supplemental supply for the lower Arkansas.
Winter Water Storage Program (WWSP) 2026
WWSP captures Nov 15 – Mar 15 flows in Pueblo and John Martin for summer release by lower Ark ditch companies (Fort Lyon participates). Because Nov–Mar flows were weak and melt came early, WWSP 2026 capture was well below a typical ~100,000+ AF year. FLCC enters May with below-average WWSP carryover — expect firm priority administration (= strict calls, junior cutoffs) through summer.
Translation to hay
Under current conditions, expected pattern on Fort Lyon shares near McClave:
- Full first cutting (May) likely
- Reduced second cutting (July)
- No third or fourth cutting in many cases
- Yield reductions of 30–50% on senior-right fields
- Junior-rights fields may fallow
- Tight SE Colorado hay supply into fall/winter
2002 is the closest historical analog (extreme drought). That year, lower Ark hay ran 40–80% above trailing 3-year average by late summer. If 2026 tracks 2002, a seller's $225/bale in April will look like a bargain in September.
Data endpoints (automation-ready)
Snowpack / snow survey (NRCS)
- Arkansas basin update report (HTML daily): https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Arkansas%20River%20Basin
- Colorado products FTP (weekly/monthly PDFs): https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/states/CO/products/
- Monthly Water Supply Outlook PDF pattern:
https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/states/CO/BORCO/borco<M><YY>.pdf(e.g.,borco426.pdffor April 2026) - AWDB REST: https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/awdbRestApi/services/v1/ (replacing SOAP)
Streamflow (USGS)
- Legacy JSON: https://waterservices.usgs.gov/nwis/iv/?sites=07096000,07091500,07124000,07122100,07133000,07137500¶meterCd=00060&format=json
- New API (migration target, ~2027): https://api.waterdata.usgs.gov
Reservoirs
- USBR RISE API: https://data.usbr.gov/rise/api/
- USBR GP Hydromet CGI (Pueblo/Twin/Turquoise/Ruedi):
https://www.usbr.gov/gp-bin/arcweb_<code>.pl - USACE John Martin morning report: https://w3.spa.usace.army.mil/wc/htmlrpts/JohnMartin.html
Climate / drought
- CPC seasonal outlook: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
- CPC ENSO diagnostic: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
- US Drought Monitor CO map: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CO
- USDM county stats (Bent FIPS 08011): https://usdmdataservices.unl.edu/api/CountyStatistics/GetDroughtSeverityStatisticsByAreaPercent?aoi=08011&startdate=1/1/2026&enddate=now&statisticsType=1
- USDM GIS shapefile/GeoJSON: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/GISData.aspx
Project / project-level operators
- SECWCD Fry-Ark import tracking: https://www.secwcd.org/content/fryingpan-arkansas-project-water-import-tracking
- SECWCD snowpack monitoring page: https://secwcd.org/content/snow-pack-monitoring
- Lower Ark Valley WCD manager notes: https://www.lowerark.com/lower-valley-water-news/
- CBRFC ESP graphs: https://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/graph/espgraph_hc.html?id=<forecast_point>
Caveats
- Snowpack % of median is a moving target — April numbers can look "OK" while the snowpack is actively rotting. The 22% statewide vs. 49% Arkansas discrepancy in early April reflects exactly this — the Ark's number is mid-collapse.
- NRCS forecasts issued April 1 don't capture any melt-after-April-1 acceleration; May 1 forecast will likely be worse, not better, for 2026.
- Fry-Ark import numbers move with Western Slope conditions, not Arkansas basin conditions. Check Ruedi / Fryingpan SNOTELs separately.