Reports
Newest first. Reports are frozen as published; corrections and grades go in the retros.
| Date | Report | Scorecard |
|---|---|---|
| September 19, 2026 | September 2026 Hay Report The target price didn't print — and a 242-report local ledger says it prints ~2.5% of the time. Spot revised DOWN to $270 (the year's largest Colorado trade was 2,000 t at $260; Oklahoma sold 380 t of Good/Premium at $170). Corrected the same day after an independent review: a claimed $250–260 floor, a $222 netback and a Nov–Dec peak claim were withdrawn. Eleven rows graded: standing record 6 of 16 (+2 NEAR). | — |
| August 27, 2026 | Late-August 2026 Hay Report First SE farm-gate trade of the grading era: 88 t at $325 FOB-farm — real, but under the 100-ton observability bar and not proof the $250 ask converted. Two independent analyses cross-audited and merged: commercial hay ~$295–310 now, winter plateau $300–335, all bands the full ±$65. Anchor-drag bias named; freight distances and a rainfall-pipeline defect fixed. | RETRO |
| August 18, 2026 | Mid-August 2026 Hay Report The pre-registered predictions graded: 2 of 10 ranges held (corrected same day from 3 — see the erratum). Production estimate revised 1.5M → ~1.95M tons; prices ran hotter than predicted anyway. Peak scenario trims to ~$260. | — |
| August 8, 2026 | August 2026 Hay Report Forecast raised $5-10; Jan 2027 peak scenario ~$265. Colorado 2026 crop est. ~1.5M tons (-36%). | RETRO |
| July 11, 2026 | July 2026 Hay Report April forecast graded (direction + magnitude right, demand side wrong); market printed $225 contract on the nose; winter peak ~$255 Jan-Feb. | RETRO |
| April 18, 2026 | April 2026 Forecast & Watchlist The first report. 12-month price path for SE Colorado premium alfalfa, the signals watchlist, and the snowpack exit rules. | RETRO |