Retros

Each report's forecast, scored against real data as it comes out.

Track record: Interval coverage: 9 of 19 two-sided numeric ranges contained the outcome (+2 NEAR), across every graded prediction sheet. An independent audit notes that early grading mixed asks, delivered trades, and statewide averages with an assumed local basis rather than one clean comparable series. From the September report we grade against a single defined target: completed SE Colorado FOB-farm commercial trades of 100+ tons, with months lacking one marked UNOBSERVABLE.